DONALD M. GOOCH
PH.D CANDIDATE, UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI




2004 ELECTION PREDICTIONS



PRESIDENTIAL POPULAR VOTE
Bush 51%
Kerry 48%
Nader 1%

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE
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BATTLEGROUND STATES

BUSH
Florida
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Iowa

KERRY
Minnesota
Michigan
Hawaii
New Jersey

ELECTORAL COLLEGE COUNT
Bush: 321
Kerry: 217


CONTESTED SENATE ELECTIONS & PICK-UPS
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South Dakota: John Thune defeats Tom Daschle (R+1)
Illinois: Obama Barrack defeats Alan Keyes (R-1)
Florida: Mel Martinez defeats Betty Castor (R+1)
Alaska: Lisa Murkowisky defeats Tony Knowles (--)
Colorado: Ken Salazar defeats Pete Coors (R-1)
Oklahoma: Tom Coburn defeats Brad Carson (--)
Georgia: Johnny Issacson defeats Denise Majette (--)
Kentucky: Jim Bunning defeats Dan Mongiardo (--)
North Carolina: Richard Burr defeats Irskin Bowles (R+1)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Inez Tenenbaum (R+1)
Washington: Patty Murray defeats George Nethercutt (--)
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold defeats Tim Michaels (--)
Louisiana (Dec): David Vitter defeats Dem in Runoff (R+1)

NET: Republicans pick up 4 seats
Senate: Republicans 55 Democrats 44 Independent 1


HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
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Republicans: 232
Democrats: 202
Independent: 1



D.GOOCH